December 28, 2025 – The streets of Shahbagh burn, media houses lie in ruins, and the global community watches in dismay as Bangladesh, once hailed as an "economic miracle," teeters on the precipice of a full-blown societal collapse. What began as a democratic transition has devolved into a "mobocracy," fueled by radical ideologies and the tragic erosion of its founding secular principles. This is not just a local crisis; it is a meticulously unfolding regional powder keg, and India, under the guidance of its 100-year-old RSS ideology and a proactive "Defensive Offence" strategy, is preparing for a system reset.
The "Blunder" of the Nobel Laureate and the Rise of Radicalism
The interim government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, initially lauded by the West, has proven to be an unmitigated disaster for Bangladesh's internal stability. While once praised for his microfinance model (even by Bill Clinton), critics within Bangladesh, including former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, now openly label it as a system that "sucks the blood of the poor." More critically, the Yunus administration has, wittingly or unwittingly, provided a fertile ground for the resurgence of radical elements.
By lifting the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, the interim government effectively handed the reins of the streets to the very forces that opposed Bangladesh's liberation in 1971. The recent assassination of radical leader Sharif Osman Hadi and the subsequent occupation of Shahbagh (renamed "Shaheed Osman Hadi Chattar") by his followers, the Inqilab Mancha, are stark evidence of this power shift. These mobs, emboldened by a leadership that dismisses the glory of Mujibur Rahman and the Liberation War, are actively calling for an "Islamic Revolution" and the severing of ties with India.
The attacks on revered cultural institutions like Chhayanaut and Udichi, the burning of Prothom Alo and The Daily Star headquarters, and the horrific lynching of minority figures like Dipu Chandra Das (burned alive) are not random acts. They represent a systematic attempt to erase Bangladesh’s secular identity and instill a purely radical mentality, creating a "deep scar" on the nation's soul.
India's Strategic Imperative: Beyond "Defensive" to "Defensive Offence"
India views the unfolding chaos with grave concern. The rise of an ISI-backed, Pakistan-aligned radical state on its eastern flank poses an existential threat to the vulnerable "Chicken's Neck" (Siliguri Corridor) – the narrow strip of land connecting mainland India to its northeastern states. As RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat recently declared, India "has to think" about intervening to protect the lives and properties of minorities in Bangladesh.
This isn't a mere rhetorical flourish. India's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, a proponent of "Defensive Offence," has reportedly conveyed a stern message to Muhammad Yunus: "You can do one Mumbai, but you may lose Balochistan." This philosophy dictates that India will not wait for an attack but will proactively neutralize threats at their source, leveraging its superior intelligence network and military capabilities to handle "foreign agents in any land."
The sealing of key supply lines from West Bengal and the Northeast, the explicit warnings from Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma and UP CM Yogi Adityanath against Bangladeshi infiltration, and the indefinite halt of connectivity projects all demonstrate India's determination to isolate and contain the radical elements.
The "Conjugate" Intervention: Military Ties and Hasina's Return
Our Conjugate Analysis of the CL5D Hybrid Model reveals a complex interaction between internal decay and external pressure. Bangladesh's "Sovereignty Score" is rapidly approaching zero as its internal governance (Evolution) collapses under the weight of mob rule and radical ideology.
A critical piece of this puzzle lies in the relationship between India and the Bangladesh military. General Waker-uz-Zaman, Bangladesh's Army Chief, notably a close relative and appointee of Sheikh Hasina, recently made an unprecedented "hotline" call to Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi. This move, reportedly born out of fear that the military is losing control to radical forces and funded by "foreign money," signaled a desperate plea for stability and a tacit understanding: the Bangladesh military does not want a war with India.
This personal connection provides India with a crucial "Conjugate Balance." India is likely leveraging this tie to facilitate a "managed transition." The strategy involves:
1. Choking the Radicals: Using NOTAMs over the Bay of Bengal (no-fly/no-ship zones extending thousands of kilometers) and sealing the 5 strategic border regions to create a "strategic island" of Bangladesh, effectively starving the radical "evolution."
(Graphics 1. Courtesy: Gemini)
2. Bolstering the Military: Providing the Bangladesh Army (under General Waker-uz-Zaman) the necessary external support to crack down on the radical elements and restore internal order.
3. Paving the Way for Hasina: With the interim government discredited and the military stabilized, the path would be cleared for the return of Sheikh Hasina, currently in India under state protection, to restore secularism and democratic norms.
The Looming Storm: NOTAMs and the Trishul
The military build-up on India's eastern border is undeniable. The Eastern Command, headquartered in Fort William (Kolkata), is on "action mode." Heavy-lift Chinook and Mi-17 helicopters are conducting sorties towards the border, and new Army bases are being rapidly established in Dhubri and Mizoram to fortify the Chicken's Neck. The NOTAMs serve as a "Harmonic disruption," severing geopolitical ties and transforming the entire region into a controlled "Permutation."
The "Trishul" (Trident), India's Tri-Services strategic exercise, is no longer just a defensive maneuver. The Entropy from Shahbagh, the lynching of minorities, and the direct threats to India's security interests are pushing the region towards a Phase III (0 = ♾️) transition – a point where a military intervention becomes an inevitability to restore "Conjugate Balance."
(Graphics 2. Courtesy: Gemini)
The tragedy is that Bangladesh, a nation born out of immense sacrifice and a promise of secularism, is now suffering from a self-inflicted wound, exacerbated by a leadership that, for all its accolades, appears to have facilitated its own downfall. As we head into 2026, the question is not if change will come, but when and how violently India will have to intervene to prevent a complete regional catastrophe.
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